Fundamental Limits of Nonintrusive Load Monitoring

Provided an arbitrary nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) algorithm, we seek bounds on the probability of distinguishing between scenarios, given an aggregate power consumption signal. We introduce a framework for studying a general NILM algorithm, and analyze the theory in the general case. Then, we specialize to the case where the error is Gaussian. In both cases, we are able to derive upper bounds on the probability of distinguishing scenarios. Finally, we apply the results to real data to derive bounds on the probability of distinguishing between scenarios as a function of the measurement noise, the sampling rate, and the device usage.Comment: Submitted to the 3rd ACM International Conference on High Confidence Networked Systems (HiCoNS

An In Depth Study into Using EMI Signatures for Appliance Identification

Energy conservation is a key factor towards long term energy sustainability. Real-time end user energy feedback, using disaggregated electric load composition, can play a pivotal role in motivating consumers towards energy conservation. Recent works have explored using high frequency conducted electromagnetic interference (EMI) on power lines as a single point sensing parameter for monitoring common home appliances. However, key questions regarding the reliability and feasibility of using EMI signatures for non-intrusive load monitoring over multiple appliances across different sensing paradigms remain unanswered. This work presents some of the key challenges towards using EMI as a unique and time invariant feature for load disaggregation. In-depth empirical evaluations of a large number of appliances in different sensing configurations are carried out, in both laboratory and real world settings. Insights into the effects of external parameters such as line impedance, background noise and appliance coupling on the EMI behavior of an appliance are realized through simulations and measurements. A generic approach for simulating the EMI behavior of an appliance that can then be used to do a detailed analysis of real world phenomenology is presented. The simulation approach is validated with EMI data from a router. Our EMI dataset - High Frequency EMI Dataset (HFED) is also released

The Stern-Gerlach Experiment Revisited

The Stern-Gerlach-Experiment (SGE) of 1922 is a seminal benchmark experiment of quantum physics providing evidence for several fundamental properties of quantum systems. Based on today's knowledge we illustrate the different benchmark results of the SGE for the development of modern quantum physics and chemistry. The SGE provided the first direct experimental evidence for angular momentum quantization in the quantum world and thus also for the existence of directional quantization of all angular momenta in the process of measurement. It measured for the first time a ground state property of an atom, it produced for the first time a `spin-polarized' atomic beam, it almost revealed the electron spin. The SGE was the first fully successful molecular beam experiment with high momentum-resolution by beam measurements in vacuum. This technique provided a new kinematic microscope with which inner atomic or nuclear properties could be investigated. The original SGE is described together with early attempts by Einstein, Ehrenfest, Heisenberg, and others to understand directional quantization in the SGE. Heisenberg's and Einstein's proposals of an improved multi-stage SGE are presented. The first realization of these proposals by Stern, Phipps, Frisch and Segr\`e is described. The set-up suggested by Einstein can be considered an anticipation of a Rabi-apparatus. Recent theoretical work is mentioned in which the directional quantization process and possible interference effects of the two different spin states are investigated. In full agreement with the results of the new quantum theory directional quantization appears as a general and universal feature of quantum measurements. One experimental example for such directional quantization in scattering processes is shown. Last not least, the early history of the `almost' discovery of the electron spin in the SGE is revisited.Comment: 50pp, 17 fig

Geometry-controlled kinetics

It has long been appreciated that transport properties can control reaction kinetics. This effect can be characterized by the time it takes a diffusing molecule to reach a target -- the first-passage time (FPT). Although essential to quantify the kinetics of reactions on all time scales, determining the FPT distribution was deemed so far intractable. Here, we calculate analytically this FPT distribution and show that transport processes as various as regular diffusion, anomalous diffusion, diffusion in disordered media and in fractals fall into the same universality classes. Beyond this theoretical aspect, this result changes the views on standard reaction kinetics. More precisely, we argue that geometry can become a key parameter so far ignored in this context, and introduce the concept of "geometry-controlled kinetics". These findings could help understand the crucial role of spatial organization of genes in transcription kinetics, and more generally the impact of geometry on diffusion-limited reactions.Comment: Submitted versio

The mitogenome portrait of Umbria in Central Italy as depicted by contemporary inhabitants and pre-Roman remains

Umbria is located in Central Italy and took the name from its ancient inhabitants, the Umbri, whose origins are still debated. Here, we investigated the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation of 545 present-day Umbrians (with 198 entire mitogenomes) and 28 pre-Roman individuals (obtaining 19 ancient mtDNAs) excavated from the necropolis of Plestia. We found a rather homogeneous distribution of western Eurasian lineages across the region, with few notable exceptions. Contemporary inhabitants of the eastern part, delimited by the Tiber River and the Apennine Mountains, manifest a peculiar mitochondrial proximity to central-eastern Europeans, mainly due to haplogroups U4 and U5a, and an overrepresentation of J (30%) similar to the pre-Roman remains, also excavated in East Umbria. Local genetic continuities are further attested to by six terminal branches (H1e1, J1c3, J2b1, U2e2a, U8b1b1 and K1a4a) shared between ancient and modern mitogenomes. Eventually, we identified multiple inputs from various population sources that likely shaped the mitochondrial gene pool of ancient Umbri over time, since early Neolithic, including gene flows with central-eastern Europe. This diachronic mtDNA portrait of Umbria fits well with the genome-wide population structure identified on the entire peninsula and with historical sources that list the Umbri among the most ancient Italic populations.We are grateful to Soprintendenza Archeologia, Belle Arti e Paesaggio dell’Umbria, to Istituto Comprensivo Statale Foligno 5 (Perugia) and to all the volunteers who generously participated in this survey and made this research possible. We thank our colleagues Prof. Fausto Panara and Dr. Livia Lucentini with whom we have been discussing the feasibility and the first steps of this project, and Prof. Cristina Cereda, Dr. Gaetano Grieco, Dr. Marialuisa Valente, Dr. Nicole Huber and Jannika Oeke for technical support. We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their suggestions and thoughtful comments. This research received support from: the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research projects FIR2012 RBFR126B8I (to AO and AA), PRIN2017 20174BTC4R (to AA); Dipartimenti di Eccellenza Program (2018–2022)—Department of Biology and Biotechnology “L. Spallanzani,” University of Pavia (to AA, AO, OS and AT) and Department of Biology, University of Florence (to DC); the Fondazione Cariplo (project no. 2018–2045 to AA, AO and AT); the Fon-dazione Carifol (2008 to AA) and the Tiroler Wissenschaftsfonds (TWF) (UNI-404/1998) (to MB)

Origin of spectral broadening in pi-conjugated amorphous semiconductors

We present a study of the picosecond fluorescence dynamics of pi-conjugated semiconducting organic dendrimers in the solid state. By varying the degree of branching within the dendrons, referred to as the dendrimer generation, a control of intermolecular spacing of the emissive core and therefore of the lattice parameter for Forster-type energy transfer is achieved. This allows a distinction between spectral diffusion and excimer formation as the two main sources of spectral broadening in organic semiconductors. Whereas Forster-type dispersive spectral relaxation is independent of temperature but strongly dependent on the interchromophore distance, excimer formation is also strongly thermally activated due to temperature-dependent conformational changes and the influence of thermally activated dynamic disorder. The rapid spectral diffusion allows a determination of the excimer rise in the emission, which is shown to have a profound impact on the steady state luminescence properties of dendrimer films. We show that the dendrimer generation not only allows a microscopic control of intermolecular interactions but also a direct control of the rate of spectral diffusion. Implications for the design of novel materials for optoelectronic devices are discussed

Reconstructing the Indian Origin and Dispersal of the European Roma: A Maternal Genetic Perspective

Previous genetic, anthropological and linguistic studies have shown that Roma (Gypsies) constitute a founder population dispersed throughout Europe whose origins might be traced to the Indian subcontinent. Linguistic and anthropological evidence point to Indo-Aryan ethnic groups from North-western India as the ancestral parental population of Roma. Recently, a strong genetic hint supporting this theory came from a study of a private mutation causing primary congenital glaucoma. In the present study, complete mitochondrial control sequences of Iberian Roma and previously published maternal lineages of other European Roma were analyzed in order to establish the genetic affinities among Roma groups, determine the degree of admixture with neighbouring populations, infer the migration routes followed since the first arrival to Europe, and survey the origin of Roma within the Indian subcontinent. Our results show that the maternal lineage composition in the Roma groups follows a pattern of different migration routes, with several founder effects, and low effective population sizes along their dispersal. Our data allowed the confirmation of a North/West migration route shared by Polish, Lithuanian and Iberian Roma. Additionally, eleven Roma founder lineages were identified and degrees of admixture with host populations were estimated. Finally, the comparison with an extensive database of Indian sequences allowed us to identify the Punjab state, in North-western India, as the putative ancestral homeland of the European Roma, in agreement with previous linguistic and anthropological studies

The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

The central Great Plains region in North America has a nocturnal maximum in warm-season precipitation. Much of this precipitation comes from organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This nocturnal maximum is counterintuitive in the sense that convective activity over the Great Plains is out of phase with the local generation of CAPE by solar heating of the surface. The lower troposphere in this nocturnal environment is typically characterized by a low-level jet (LLJ) just above a stable boundary layer (SBL), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values that peak above the SBL, resulting in convection that may be elevated, with source air decoupled from the surface. Nocturnal MCS-induced cold pools often trigger undular bores and solitary waves within the SBL. A full understanding of the nocturnal precipitation maximum remains elusive, although it appears that bore-induced lifting and the LLJ may be instrumental to convection initiation and the maintenance of MCSs at night. To gain insight into nocturnal MCSs, their essential ingredients, and paths toward improving the relatively poor predictive skill of nocturnal convection in weather and climate models, a large, multiagency field campaign called Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) was conducted in 2015. PECAN employed three research aircraft, an unprecedented coordinated array of nine mobile scanning radars, a fixed S-band radar, a unique mesoscale network of lower-tropospheric profiling systems called the PECAN Integrated Sounding Array (PISA), and numerous mobile-mesonet surface weather stations. The rich PECAN dataset is expected to improve our understanding and prediction of continental nocturnal warm-season precipitation. This article provides a summary of the PECAN field experiment and preliminary findings

DNA Methods to Identify Missing Persons

Human identification by DNA analysis in missing person cases typically involves comparison of two categories of sample: a reference sample, which could be obtained from intimate items of the person in question or from family members, and the questioned sample from the unknown person-usually derived from the bones, teeth, or soft tissues of human remains. Exceptions include the analysis of archived tissues, such as those held by hospital pathology departments, and the analysis of samples relating to missing, but living persons. DNA is extracted from the questioned and reference samples and well-characterized regions of the genetic code are amplified from each source using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), which generates sufficient copies of the target region for visualization and comparison of the genetic sequences obtained from each sample. If the DNA sequences of the questioned and reference samples differ, this is normally sufficient for the questioned DNA to be excluded as having come from the same source. If the sequences are identical, statistical analysis is necessary to determine the probability that the match is a consequence of the questioned sequence coming from the same individual who provided the reference sample or from a randomly occurring individual in the general population. Match probabilities that are currently achievable are frequently greater than 1 in 1 billion, allowing identity to be assigned with considerable confidence in many cases

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed